Japan Has a Flu Epidemic! Are You Ready for a BAD Flu Season?

Most Americans are sick and tired of epidemics, pandemics or any other “emics.” Many people want to forget about face masks, vaccines and viruses. Sadly, though, the pathogens are not taking a break. Japan has just declared a flu epidemic!

That’s because public health authorities are reporting thousands of cases of influenza there. According to a report in Nature (Oct. 14, 2025), over 100 schools and childcare centers have closed. Over 6,000 cases have been reported from sentinel medical institutions. That’s way more than would be expected at this time of year. Influenza doesn’t usually take off in Japan until December, much like in the US. It generally lasts until March. Are you ready for a flu epidemic in the United States?

What Makes a Flu Epidemic?

An epidemic is declared when the number of cases of a specific medical condition exceeds the expected number of cases at a particular time of the year. The Japanese Ministry of Health has declared that the number of patients they have identified with influenza now exceeds the epidemic threshold.

A pandemic is declared when lots of countries reach epidemic levels. The Bulletin of the World Health Organization (July 1, 2011) describes it this way:

“A pandemic is defined as ‘an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people.’”

“Simultaneous worldwide transmission of influenza is sufficient to define an influenza pandemic and is consistent with the classical definition of ‘an epidemic occurring worldwide’. There is then ample opportunity to further describe the potential range of influenza pandemics in terms of transmissibility and disease severity.”

How Do Japanese Health Authorities Deal With a Flu Epidemic?

The Ministry of Health in Japan encourages citizens to be proactive. It recommends vaccination for young children and older people. Anyone with a preexisting condition (high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, depression, obesity, etc) is also encouraged to get a flu shot.

One key recommendation that will not be adopted by U.S. health authorities is masking. The Ministry of Health in Japan urges the public to wash hands and wear masks. A great many people there follow this recommendation.

Americans hate masks! It is highly unlikely that our government would ever recommend masking again. Even if it did, I suspect that few people would follow such a recommendation.

A few cautious people, especially those who are immunocompromised, may wear a mask. The overwhelming majority of Americans refuse such protection, even if they have hypertension, diabetes or any other health condition that might make them vulnerable to a bad outcome if they catch something nasty.

Will There Be a Flu Epidemic in the United States?

I am not a public health authority. My crystal ball is quite cloudy! Nevertheless, I always look to Australia and New Zealand for an influenza prediction. That’s because these countries are in the southern hemisphere. That means they are always six months ahead of us. They are just getting ready to experience spring-like weather as we prepare for colder temperatures and winter.

What happened in Australia during their influenza season? It wasn’t pretty. Let’s start with Western Australia (WA). This is a huge land mass with relatively few people. It includes a lot of arid and semi-arid land and a tremendous amount of dessert. Roughly 80% of the population of WA live in Perth, the state capital.

The ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) reports on October 14, 2025 that:

“WA has recorded more than 30,000 flu cases this year, making it the worst season since records began in 2001.

“It’s also the longest flu season WA has experienced — with more cases recorded already this month than any other October during that period.”

So, Western Australia had its worst and longest flu season on record. The Aussies are a lot like Americans. That may be especially true in Western Australia. There, they have opted out of flu shots more there than in other parts of OZ.

What about the rest of Australia? Influenza started early throughout Australia. Cases began rising sharply in May and hit peaks in June and July. But Western Australia was still reporting cases in October. Overall, Australian healthcare authorities reported record-breaking influenza cases in 2025. They started earlier than usual and lasted longer than expected. New Zealand residents experienced a late peak. The South Island was especially hard hit.

The CDC Seems Out of Step with the Southern Hemisphere:

Most health authorities in Europe pay close attention to what happens in Australia and New Zealand. We’re not sure public health authorities in the United States are paying as much attention as the Europeans. Then again, a lot of people have been fired at the CDC. The people that remain may not be able to track a flu epidemic as they once did.

On October 7, 2025 the Infectious Disease Special Edition led its story with a headline:

“CDC Classifies Upcoming Flu Season as Moderate, but Vaccination Still Key”

The article states that:

“…the CDC expects the upcoming 2025-2026 flu season to be moderate across all ages, according to a report released at the end of August.“

Like many articles at the CDC, that one has disappeared.

Apparently a CDC spokesperson told Infectious Disease Special Edition:

“One reason the agency believes the season will be moderate is because there was high flu circulation last season, and it is rare for back-to-back high-severity seasons, which has not happened since the CDC began qualitatively assessing the upcoming flu season for the 2003-2004 season.”

I have my doubts, but only time will tell who is right and who got it wrong.

What About the Influenza Vaccine to Ward Off a Flu Epidemic?

I have written some scathing criticisms of flu shots. That’s because they are often surprisingly ineffective. Here are just a few examples:

Will You Get a Flu Shot? How Well Will It Work?
The CDC wants you to get a flu shot before you come down with the flu. How well will it work? In past years, it wasn’t all that great.

In that article we traced vaccine effectiveness from 2004 through 2021. Some years the jab was less than 20% effective. About the best it gets is around 50-60% effective. The overall effectiveness rate is about 40%.

Last winter I wrote this article:

Flu Frenzy! The Worst Influenza Outbreak in 15 Years Overwhelming Hospitals
Have you caught a bad cold or the flu this year? We are in the middle of a terrible influenza outbreak! Has the flu shot let us down?

We quoted the CDC’s MMWR from a year ago (October 3, 2024):

Adjusted vaccine effectiveness

• 34.5% overall
• 39% among young children
• 32.2% among older adults

That was data from the southern hemisphere (South America).

According to public health officials, the vaccines this year should be a pretty good match for the influenza strains that were circulating in Australia: Influenza A (H3N2), A (H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B/Victoria.

According to the Pan American Health Organization:

“Adjusted VE [vaccine effectiveness] against influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalization was 50.4% and 49.7%, respectively, for any influenza virus, and 45.4% and 46.1%, respectively, for influenza A viruses. Adjusted VE against hospitalization with the predominant influenza subtype, A(H1N1)pdm09, was 41.6%. These interim estimates suggest that vaccination reduced medically attended influenza-associated illness by approximately one half in eight Southern Hemisphere countries. Health authorities should prioritize vaccination of all eligible persons ≥6 months to reduce incidence of influenza disease.”

Based on our review of flu shots going back to 2004, those vaccine effectiveness numbers are pretty decent. A bit better than many years, but by no means perfect protection. Then again, I have never seen perfection when it comes to flu shots.

Will Influenza Vaccines Protect Against a Flu Epidemic?

That is an impossible question to answer. Influenza viruses do mutate. But if this year’s shots are between 40 and 50% effective, they could keep a lot of people out of hospitals. Did I get a flu shot? You bet! I do not want to come down with influenza this winter. And yes, I also got an RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) vaccine. This viral infection was widespread in the Southern Hemisphere this year. And yes, I also got a COVID shot. I prefer the traditional technology, pre-mRNA, that is made by Novavax. It’s the Nuvaxovid™ 2025-2026 formula.

There is another reason I now get an influenza vaccine. Even if there is no flu epidemic this winter, I am getting the flu shot because of the possibility it might reduce my risk of developing Alzheimer disease. If you would like to learn more about this unexpected benefit, here is a link:

Will Flu Shots Protect You from Alzheimer Disease?
Several studies suggest that flu shots protect older adults from dementia as well as from infection. Regular immunizations seem to work best.

What About You?

Have you given up on vaccines or have you protected yourself as much as possible against influenza, RSV or COVID? We would love to read your story in the comment section below.

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