Welcome to our latest update on influenza (Flu Watch for 1/1/2026) and other circulating nasties (Outbreak Update-3). Back on November 17, 2025, we wrote an article titled “Flying Blind into Influenza Season: Global Trends vs. CDC’s Lag.” Here at The People’s Pharmacy we try to alert you to upcoming health challenges.
Back in November we were asking:
“How bad will this year’s influenza season be? That is a question we ask every fall about this time. Normally, we turn to the CDC for answers to questions about circulating infections. But as people prepare to gather with friends and family over the holidays, the CDC is woefully behind.”
Part of the problem back then was the government shutdown. It took the CDC awhile to catch up. But I fear that the CDC has been playing catchup ever since.
During last summer the CDC stated that it:
“expects the upcoming 2025-2026 flu season to be moderate across all ages…”
The People’s Pharmacy was NOT Buying that Prediction:
Here is what I wrote back then:
A spokesperson for the federal agency told Infectious Disease Special Edition:
“One reason the agency believes the season will be moderate is because there was high flu circulation last season, and it is rare for back-to-back high-severity seasons, which has not happened since the CDC began qualitatively assessing the upcoming flu season for the 2003-2004 season.”
“I am not buying this story. In my not-so-humble opinion, it is not scientific. Other countries that had a bad influenza season last year have reported nasty influenza outbreaks this year.”
Fast Forward to Flu Watch 1/1/2026:
There is a reason that the FDA’s premature optimism has disappeared without a trace. The agency was flat out wrong! Let me say why. We follow influenza trends established in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and southern South America. We have described why we turn to the southern hemisphere for an early snapshot of influenza at this link. They are always 6 months ahead of us. Right now it is summer in Australia!
As I write this Flu Watch 1/1/2026 it is clear that our influenza outbreak could be worse than the bad outbreak in the “land down under.” That’s because they actually had a vaccine that was a pretty good match with the circulating flu strains. We, on the other hand, received outdated vaccines. Subclade K emerged after our vaccines were already in production.
We keep being reassured that this year’s flu shots should still protect us or reduce the likelihood of a bad case. That is wishful thinking. We won’t know whether that is true for several more weeks. In the meantime, a lot of people are sick.
The UK Was Ahead Of Us!
The BMJ (British Medical Journal) reported as early as November 12, 2025 that:
“England is facing one of the toughest ever winters in its history as an early wave of flu sweeps the nation, health officials warn.
“Flu rates have started climbing much sooner than usual this year, driven largely by cases in young adults and schoolchildren. And experts warn that the H3N2 strain, currently dominant in cases in England, mutated seven times over the summer, making it more severe than normal.
“Amid growing concern that hospitals will be overwhelmed this winter, health officials have urged all eligible groups, including people over 65, people with certain long term conditions, pregnant women, and children, to get vaccinated.
“Chief executive of NHS [National Health Service] England Jim Mackey said, ‘There’s no doubt this winter will be one of the toughest our staff have ever faced.’
“‘Since stepping into this role, the thought of a long, drawn-out flu season has kept me awake at night. And, unfortunately, it looks like that fear is becoming reality.’
“Mackey added, ‘Australia has just endured its worst flu season on record—over 410 000 cases—and all the signs suggest the NHS will face similar challenges in the months ahead. From December through to March our hospitals will be at capacity.’”
New York State Is Suffering!
New York was a bit of a canary in a coal mine. That’s because it was reporting problems weeks ago. In our Outbreak Update-1 we reported on December 12, 2025, that:
“Subclade K Influenza is rising nationwide. Flu activity continues climbing, though the CDC is a couple of weeks behind. Canada is being hit hard and we are hearing that New York State is suffering along with Louisiana and Colorado. Other states trending upward include Iowa, Idaho, Michigan and Missouri.”
On December 26, 2025, the New York State Department of Health Reported:
“The Department’s most recent data shows a total of 71,123 positive flu cases reported for the seven days ending December 20, 2025, the most that the Department has ever recorded in one week since influenza was made reportable in 2004. This is a rise of 38 percent over the previous week. There have been 189,312 positive flu cases reported in New York this season to date.
“Hospitalizations due to influenza climbed by 63 percent, up from 2,251 in the previous week to 3,666 across the State.”
Where the CDC Reports Flu Cases are Surging:
In this Flu Watch for 1/1/2026 we are relying on old data. It comes from the CDC for the “Influenza Season Week 51 ending Dec 20, 2025.” Here is the latest FLU MAP:
FluView from the CDC 12/20/25
Please keep in mind that this map is “old” as you read this on January 2, 2026. But, you can see that the CDC believes the states that have “Very High” or “High” influenza Activity include (more or less from east to west):
- New York
- Maine
- New Hampshire
- Massachusetts
- Rhode Island
- Connecticut
- New Jersey
- Maryland
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- South Carolina
- Georgia
- Florida
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- Ohio
- Indiana
- Michigan
- Minnessota
- Missouri
- Arkansas
- Texas
- Kansas
- New Mexico
- Colorado
- Nevado
- Idaho
- California
If I were a betting man, and I am not, I suspect that as you read this, virtually every state is now recording high or very high influenza activity levels. The CDC estimates over 80,000 people have been hospitalized with influenza, but that is “old” information. As you read this, the numbers are likely much higher. So whether you are in Connecticut or Colorado, there is a very good chance that flu cases are breaking records. Some headlines have used the “E” word when describing hospitalizations…”Exploding”
Is this year’s influenza outbreak a pandemic? As far as I can tell, no one has yet used the “P” word. In Japan public health authorities declared an ” influenza epidemic” on October 3, 2025. What is the likelihood that the US will declare a flu epidemic anytime soon? I am not holding my breath…but I am wearing an N95 mask when I am out in public. And I am spritzing my nose with the azelastine (Astepro) antihistmaine spray. You can read why at this link.
Flu Watch 1/1/2026 Recommendations:
Virtually all public health authorities are encouraging people to get vaccinated against this year’s influenza variants. I am not going to discourage anyone from getting a flu shot. But…
- It’s late to develop quick immune protection
- The vaccines in use were prepared before Subclade K reared its ugly head
- Even when there is a great match between the flu shot and circulating viruses, effectiveness may only reach 60%
- Most years vaccine effectiveness is around 40%
- When the match is poor, effectiveness can drop below 20%
You can read about vaccine effectiveness in more detail at this link.
What Else Can You Do?
There are antiviral medications. They only work if taken at the earliest possible moment after the infection has taken hold. How would you know if you are dealing with a cold, COVID-19 or influenza? TEST! There are now over-the-counter tests for both flu and COVID.
We suggested last week that you be prepared to test immediately upon experiencing symptoms such as fever, sore throat, aches and pains, cough and fatigue. We make no recommendations about particular tests, but here are some options:
- iHealth COVID-19, Flu A&B 3-in1 Antigen Rapid Test
OSOM Covid Flu Test Combo – 3-in-1 Rapid Flu A B and Covid Home Test Kit
- CorDx TyFast 10 Mins Flu A/B & Covid 19 Multiplex Rapid Test
Here is what is popping on the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard:
- SARS0CoV-2 (COVID-19) is “High”
- RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) is “High”
- Influenza A is “High”
- Norovirus (“stomach flu,” “winter vomiting disease,” “cruise-ship virus,” “viral gastroenteritis” is “High”
To make matters even worse, pertussis (whooping cough, aka the “100-day cough”) is out there. And measles has been detected in a traveler at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey and at Boston’s Logan International Airport. The virus that causes measles is highly contagious, so it is possible that many people have been exposed en route to gatherings with family or friends.
You can read more about measles at this post. In mid-October, when I wrote that article, there were almost 1,600 measles cases this year. As the year ended, the Johns Hopkins University Measles Tracker reports 2,071 cases. In case you think measles is no big deal, please read this article and learn about symptoms and potential complications.
Final Words:
I am so sorry that this Flu Watch for 1/1/2026 and Outbreak Update-3 does not have a lot of good news. Trust me when I say I am not trying to scare you. We are trying to keep you up to date on the latest infections circulating around the country. You are invited to share this report with friends and family members so that we can get the word out about what is happening around the country. Ignorance is not bliss if you come down with the flu, or COVID or norovirus or whooping cough.
We are also encouraging people to let us know what is happening in their community. Have you or anyone you know come down with “something?” We would very much like to learn 1) where you are geographically and 2) what is circulating in your area. We will continue to share this information in future Flu Watches or Outbreak Updates, with your assistance.
Upcoming Radio Shows/Podcasts:
We have a fascinating radio show/podcast coming up in a few days. On Saturday, January 10, 2026 we will be interviewing Dr. Roger Seheult. He is a brilliant physician who is an Associate Clinical Professor at the University of California, Riverside School of Medicine, and an Assistant Clinical Professor at the School of Medicine and Allied Health at Loma Linda University.
Dr. Seheult is quadruple board-certified in Internal Medicine, Pulmonary Diseases, Critical Care Medicine, and Sleep Medicine through the American Board of Internal Medicine. His current practice is in Beaumont, California where he is a critical care physician, pulmonologist, and sleep physician at Optum California.
He lectures routinely across the country at conferences and for medical, PA, and RT societies, is the director of a sleep lab, and is the Medical Director for the Crafton Hills College Respiratory Care Program. You can listen to an earlier interview at this link:
Show 1369: What to Do If You Catch the Flu (Archive)
“In this interview, an expert in critical care and pulmonology offers evidence-based tips on how to recover more quickly if you catch the flu.”
Better yet, sign up for our free podcast at this link so you can listen to the latest interview with Dr. Seheult when it airs on January 10, 2026. Thanks to listeners like you, we just topped 1,000 reviews on Apple Podcasts. Here is a link to Apple Podcasts where we have moved up to a 4.6 rating out of 5. While you are there, why not sign up.
Thank you so much for supporting our work during 2025. If you would like us to keep you up-t0-date on breaking health news, please continue to encourage friends and family to join our newsletter family at this link. Thank you for supporting our work.
