Flying Blind into Influenza Season: Global Trends vs. CDC’s Lag

How bad will this year’s influenza season be? That is a question we ask every fall about this time. Normally, we turn to the CDC for answers to questions about circulating infections. But as people prepare to gather with friends and family over the holidays, the CDC is woefully behind. For weeks, the country’s critical flu-tracking system sputtered because of the extended federal shutdown. One more thing! This federal agency has lost critical personnel. Fewer health professionals means a less effective program.

A Six-Week Influenza Season Blind Spot:

Public health experts should have been scrutinizing flu season data trends throughout October. But by early November, the agency’s public reporting still hadn’t caught up; the CDCs website provided numbers from September—a lifetime in flu-surveillance terms. Given the system’s typical one-to-two week lag, even that data was old.

Once the government reopened, the CDC’s FluView dashboard finally began updating again. If you visit the CDC website you will see the giant data donut hole from September 20 through November 8. Now, the initial trend is unmistakable: influenza activity is climbing. Staff shortages and the weeks-long pause in surveillance mean that the full picture may still be hazy, though. Can we trust we’re getting the full picture?

Recent data show that nearly all viruses detected in Week 45 were influenza A, with H3N2 dominating. Hospitalizations are rising as well. But the CDC starts its most recent report with this somewhat reassuring message:

“KEY POINTS

• “Seasonal influenza activity remains low nationally but is increasing, primarily among children.”
• No influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2025-2026 season have been reported to CDC.”

During the summer the CDC stated that it:

“expects the upcoming 2025-2026 flu season to be moderate across all ages…”

That announcement seems to have disappeared without a trace.

A spokesperson for the federal agency told Infectious Disease Special Edition:

“One reason the agency believes the season will be moderate is because there was high flu circulation last season, and it is rare for back-to-back high-severity seasons, which has not happened since the CDC began qualitatively assessing the upcoming flu season for the 2003-2004 season.”

I am not buying this story. In my not-so-humble opinion, it is not scientific. Other countries that had a bad influenza season last year have reported nasty influenza outbreaks this year.

Red Flags from Around the Globe About Influenza Season:

While American epidemiologists were blind folded, scientists in other countries have been sounding alarms about this year’s flu season. And history tells us we should have been more attentive to the southern hemisphere’s influenza season. It often predicts what we will see six months later. Australia, New Zealand and Chile can serve as bellwethers for our own flu season.

Australia experienced its worst influenza season since record-keeping began in 2001. Western Australia was hit particularly hard, with the season starting early, affecting far more people than usual, and continuing well past its typical end date. People in New Zealand also experienced a late peak in flu cases. The South Island was hit especially hard.

South America experienced areas of high flu activity. Argentina, like Australia, was hit hard earlier than usual. Chile reported high levels of influenza A(H1N1) infections. Cases were elevated enough for health authorities there to declare that an epidemic threshold was reached.

South Africa, like Australia, reported an early start to the flu season. The A(H3N2) strain predominated just as it did in Australia and New Zealand.

Influenza Season in the Rest of the World:

Japan documented a spike in cases well before autumn was in full swing. Health officials there have already declared an epidemic, and more than 2,000 schools have been forced to close partially or entirely.

South Korea is sounding alarms as well. The Korean Disease Control and Prevention Agency reports that infections are running at triple last year’s levels, and that this year’s outbreak began roughly two months ahead of schedule.

What’s Happening in Britain?

The BMJ (British Medical Journal) published an alarming article about this year’s influenza season on November 12, 2025.  The title:

“Flu in numbers: NHS [National Health Service] faces one of worst winters ever, officials warn, amid concern over mutated strain”

Here is what the author reports:

“England is facing one of the toughest ever winters in its history as an early wave of flu sweeps the nation, health officials warn.

“Flu rates have started climbing much sooner than usual this year,1 driven largely by cases in young adults and schoolchildren. And experts warn that the H3N2 strain, currently dominant in cases in England, mutated seven times over the summer, making it more severe than normal.

“Amid growing concern that hospitals will be overwhelmed this winter, health officials have urged all eligible groups, including people over 65, people with certain long term conditions, pregnant women, and children, to get vaccinated.

“Chief executive of NHS England Jim Mackey said, ‘There’s no doubt this winter will be one of the toughest our staff have ever faced.’

“‘Since stepping into this role, the thought of a long, drawn-out flu season has kept me awake at night. And, unfortunately, it looks like that fear is becoming reality.’

“Mackey added, ‘Australia has just endured its worst flu season on record—over 410 000 cases—and all the signs suggest the NHS will face similar challenges in the months ahead. From December through to March our hospitals will be at capacity.’”

The Guardian (November 14, 2025) quoted Elaine Clancy, the group chief nursing officer for St George’s, Epsom and St. Helier university hospitals:

“Last flu season was particularly nasty and we’re very concerned that this year could be even worse. We’re preparing for a spike of flu on to our wards.”

The Guardian reports that:

“The UK flu season has started more than a month earlier than usual”

Sound familiar?

What Will this Influenza Season Be Like in the US?

We have no clue! I suspect that the CDC is scurrying to catch up…so we have no idea what is actually happening on the ground here in the US. The British health authorities are especially concerned because the A(H3N2) strain that they are seeing has mutated. Although the current vaccines provide some protection, it may not be as good as originally hoped.

Should people get their flu shots sooner rather than later? Normally, the CDC would be able to advise Americans about the best timing for vaccination. This year, however, the agency has not been able to do that. We suspect that the anti-vax movement in the US continues to gather steam. That sentiment may have penetrated our public health agencies as well.  The decision to get a flu shot is up to each individual in consultation with their health care provider.

Is It Too Late to Get a Flu Shot This Influenza Season?

The answer is no, it is not too late. But with holiday travel approaching and family gatherings almost upon us, vaccine effectiveness will take some time to build up.

We have been critical of flu shots in the past because they rarely provide more than about 40 percent protection from infection. But new research suggests that respiratory diseases like influenza and RSV harm not only the lungs but also the cardiovascular system. Such viral infections increase the likelihood that people will suffer coronary heart disease, heart attacks or strokes (JAHA, Oct. 29, 2025).

A meta-analysis of randomized influenza vaccine trials published in the American Journal of Medicine (May 20, 2023) found that:

“Influenza vaccine is a cheap and effective intervention to reduce the risk for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, major acute cardiovascular events, and acute coronary syndrome among coronary artery disease patients, especially in those with acute coronary syndrome.”

Most people assume that the only risk from influenza season is fever, coughing, sneezing, congestion, aches and pains and overall fatigue. After a week or two, everything will be fine and dandy again. The idea that influenza could increase the risk for a heart attack or a stroke seems bizarre.

What About Alzheimer Disease?

Could a flu shot protect people from Alzheimer disease? There is growing data that suggests an influenza vaccination might indeed protect against dementia. I have documented the research in great detail in this article:

Will Flu Shots Protect You from Alzheimer Disease?
Several studies suggest that flu shots protect older adults from dementia as well as from infection. Regular immunizations seem to work best.

If you are adamantly opposed to all vaccines and you get sick this influenza season, please consider an antiviral medication. These treatments are not silver bullets, but they are better than nothing. You can read about Xofluza (baloxavir), Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir) at this link:

Will Xofluza Help You Recover from the Flu Faster?
FDA approved Xofluza for flu a few years ago. A new analysis tells you what you could expect in effectiveness. Is it worth the steep price?

The People’s Pharmacy is reader supported. When you buy through links in this post, we may earn a small affiliate commission (at no cost to you).

One More Thing About This Year’s Influenza Season:

How would you know if you catch the flu? There are lot of respiratory viruses out there just waiting to invade your nose, throat and lungs. Here are just a few:

• Influenza, type A and type B
• Rhinoviruses & adenoviruses (cold viruses)
• Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
• Whooping cough (pertussis)
• Sars-CoV-2 (COVID-19)
• Walking pneumonia (Mycoplasma pneumoniae)
• Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV)

We could go on, but you get the picture. There are a lot of nasty respiratory tract infections just waiting for the opportunity to invade a human host and then multiply like crazy. The treatment that works best will depend a lot on the virus you catch.

If you catch the “common” cold, you will want to listen to these two podcasts:

Show 1415: Can Home Remedies Help Overcome Cold Symptoms?
Joe & Terry invite listeners to share their favorite remedies for cold symptoms. Have you tried onion syrup or thyme tea?

Show 1431: Vitamin C Studies on Colds & Cancer Vindicate Linus Pauling
Research on using vitamin C to treat colds or some types of cancer yielded results that vindicate Linus Pauling.

If you catch influenza, you will want to listen to pulmonologist, Roger Seheult, MD at this link:

Show 1369: What to Do If You Catch the Flu (Archive)
In this interview, an expert in critical care and pulmonology offers evidence-based tips on how to recover more quickly if you catch the flu.

If you want to know if you have COVID-19, influenza A or B or something else, like RSV, you will need to take a home test…unless you want to drag your body to the doctor’s office. There are now lots of home tests for influenza, COVID-19 and even RSV.

The first FDA approved test was Pixel from LabCorp. But it is pricey and you have to send in your sample to LabCorp using a prepaid FedEx return envelope. It is highly accurate because it is a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test. But at $129, a lot of people will prefer an “antigen” test. There can range from about $20 to $60 and provide results within minutes.

Here are just a few examples:

• iHealth COVID-19, Flu A&B 3-in1 Antigen Rapid Test  

• OSOM Covid Flu Test Combo – 3-in-1 Rapid Flu A B and Covid Home Test Kit

• CorDx TyFast 10 Mins Flu A/B & Covid 19 Multiplex Rapid Test

The People’s Pharmacy is reader supported. When you buy through links in this post, we may earn a small affiliate commission (at no cost to you).

Final Words:

As I write this, the CDC has not alerted the American public to the possibility of a bad influenza season. Maybe the CDC is right and we will get lucky. Perhaps this will be a “light” flu season after all.

But if we follow the examples of Australia, Britain, Canada, Chile, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, it could be challenging. And remember, the result of catching influenza is not always a minor respiratory tract infection. Some people can be laid low for many weeks. There is also the possibility that catching the flu could lead to serious cardiovascular complications.

We cannot promise that a flu shot will protect you. We have noted that even in good years the ability of the vaccine to help prevent influenza is between 40% to 60%. The word from Britain is that the H3N2 virus has in fact mutated. That could mean the vaccine will only provide partial protection.

We do think you should have an at-home flu test kit available. If you test positive, your doctor could prescribe an antiviral medication. They too are far from perfect, but they could reduce the risk of hospitalization. Some people seem to benefit more than others.

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