Public health authorities are striving to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. But the outcome of the race between the variants and the vaccines remains uncertain. That is in part because there is growing concern about the B.1.617 variant of COVID-19 that is causing so much devastation in India. This so-called double mutant strain of the coronavirus is more contagious than other forms. Scientists worry that its mutations might make it impervious to the vaccines. That’s why the race between vaccines vs. variants has many scientists on edge.
Can We Put COVID in the Rearview Mirror?
Most people want to put the coronavirus in the rearview mirror. Whether we can will depend upon who wins the upcoming title match: Vaccines vs. Variants. In India, the B.1.617 variant is the dominant coronavirus strain. There are now three “sub-lineages” of this variant, with B.1.617.2 of greatest global concern. British researchers fear that this double-mutant, fast-spreading virus could be even more catching than the variant that caused so much suffering there last winter.
In case you have zoned out on COVID stories, the news from India this week is disastrous. The country recorded over 4,500 deaths on May 18, 2021. That sets a new world record. The US held that record until this week. We lost more than 4,400 people on January 20, 2021. India is now the hottest of hot spots.
As bad as 4,500 deaths in one days is, the number could be much higher. The country has had challenges keeping track of what is happening in the countryside. And its rate of vaccinations has been surprisingly slow. Keep in mind that India is a major vaccine manufacturer and bragged about its ability to crank out COVID vaccines. but it has not been able to keep pace with the demand.
What’s Happening Across the US?
We have been tracking COVID cases in the US for over a year. We like to review the data from the last two weeks (The New York Times) and the last seven days (The Washington Post). That way we can get a snapshot of what has been happening and what is likely to happen over coming days.
Here is what we see based on these metrics. Over the last two weeks total COVID cases are going down by 35%. There is a 21% decrease in hospitalizations. Deaths were down 13%. That’s very good news. Over the last week, though, it’s not quite as good. Cases were down 17.1% and hospitalizations dropped 13.2%. The Washington Post reports that deaths fell 5.9% in the last week.
Vaccines vs. Variants: Which States Are Losing the Race?
Nearly half the US population has received at least one shot. Some states have done even better. Vermont, for example, has almost vaccinated two-thirds of its population with one or more jabs. But other states are lagging. Mississippi has the fewest vaccinations with 32%. Alabama, Louisiana and Wyoming are also losing the vaccine race. Idaho, Arkansas, Georgia and South Carolina are also in the bottom tier when it comes to vaccinations.
Where is the virus showing up? Cases are up 27% in Wyoming over the last week. South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi are seeing cases going in the wrong direction. If you want to get granular, counties with some of the highest rates of reported cases according to the Washington Post as of May 20, 2021 include:
Dolores County, Colo.
Shelby County, Ala.
Oldham County, Tex.
Chattahoochee County, Ga.
Conejos County, Colo.
Armstrong County, Tex.
North Texas and B1.617.2
Many Americans like to think of themselves as somehow different from the rest of the world. If we have learned anything, though, it is that viruses have no respect for national boundaries.
The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center has just identified two cases of the double mutant variant B.1.617.2 that is spreading so quickly throughout India. This variant has also been located in Colorado, Nevada and Oklahoma. We suspect it is in many other states.
Vaccines vs Variants?
So, will the vaccines work against B.1.617.2? That is a question that does not yet have a good answer. New research shows, however, that both the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines in wide use in the US do protect against this variant.
The experiments used antibodies from the blood of vaccinated people and evaluated how well those antibodies could block the virus (Nature, May 17, 2021). They found that the antibodies generated by vaccination are seven times less effective against B.1.617 than against the original strain of the virus. However, they still work to protect people.
The researchers emphasize that their findings should encourage people to get vaccinated. Unvaccinated individuals offer the SARS-CoV-2 virus opportunities to replicate and mutate, potentially becoming more dangerous as it does so.
The People’s Pharmacy Perspective:
We are in a deadly race. Variants are widespread in the US. Last month we asked the question:
Will Vaccines Protect Us Against New Variants?
Will vaccines protect against the new variants? Did our focus on vaccines delay the development of drugs to treat COVID-19?
You may want to take a minute to read that article to find out about Joe’s dream for an effective antiviral medicine. We are anticipating an announcement shortly about the clinical effectiveness of molnupiravir. You can listen to our interview with Dr. Ralph Baric about this interesting compound at this link.
So far, it appears that vaccines are making a difference, especially for older people. Hospitalizations and deaths are down in this segment of the population. But younger people are catching COVID and many of them are ending up in the hospital.
We also hear about people who were asymptomatic or had what seemed like mild cases of COVID. A surprising number are now complaining about long COVID. They are suffering from many serious health complications. You can learn more about these so-called long haulers by listening to this podcast with physicians who have either had it themselves or are treating people with post-COVID syndrome.
Show 1254: Combating the Long-Term Effects of Post-COVID Syndrome
Some people suffer devastating consequences after an acute coronavirus infection. Fatigue and dizziness from POTS may be part of this post-COVID syndrome.
We do not yet know what will win the race of the vaccines vs. variants. We hope you are on the winning team!
