Every year, public health authorities urge Americans to roll up their sleeves and get a flu shot. The CDC sometimes suggests that people call ahead to make sure there is vaccine available. The reasons to be vaccinated against flu are to help you fight off the infection yourself, and to help protect others from influenza. How well did it work during the 2025-2026 influenza season? The “early” news is not great.
Influenza 2025-2026:
Influenza cases are trending down at long last, though the CDC reports “overall seasonal influenza activity remains elevated nationally.” The agency notes that hospitalizations from influenza were the third highest since the 2010-2011 flu season.
The CDC estimates that there were:
- 27 million illnesses
- 350,000 hospitalizations
- 22,000 deaths from flu
That’s so far this season. Influenza has not yet disappeared for good. Please keep in mind that those numbers are estimates. I am not sure that I trust the CDC’s calculations.
According to preliminary analysis, the vaccine underperformed the usual effectiveness rate of around 40%. Because the A-H3N2 subclade K variant surfaced after the vaccines were in production, the shots were less effective than usual. Early data suggest they were about 25 to 30% helpful in preventing adults from contracting the flu. But the CDC is putting up preliminary effectiveness scores of 36% (see the table below).
MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report), March 12, 2026
Here is what the MMWR actually states for the 2025-2026 flu season vaccine effectiveness (VE):
“Among children and adolescents aged <18 years, VE was 38%–41% against influenza outpatient visits and 41% against influenza-associated hospitalization. Among adults aged ≥18 years, VE was 22%–34% against influenza outpatient visits and 30% against influenza-associated hospitalization. Among children and adolescents, VE against influenza A ranged from 37% (against outpatient visits) to 42% (against hospitalization) across settings; among adults, VE against influenza A ranged from 30% (against hospitalization) to 34% (against outpatient visits) across settings. Among children and adolescents, VE against influenza A(H3N2)–associated outpatient visits was 35% and against influenza A(H3N2)–associated hospitalization was 38%.”
Vaccine Effectiveness in Aduts:
“Adults aged 18–64 years. Among adults aged 18–64 years in VISION, influenza VE against an outpatient visit for any influenza was 36%, for influenza A was 35%, and for influenza B was 66%. In U.S. Flu VE, estimates of VE against an outpatient visit for any influenza (24%), influenza A (23%), and influenza A(H3N2) (12%) were not statistically significant. In VISION, VE against hospitalization for any influenza was 29% and for influenza A was 28%. Influenza B VE against outpatient visits (U.S. Flu VE) and hospitalization (VISION) were not reportable.
“Adults aged ≥65 years. Among adults aged ≥65 years, influenza VE against an outpatient visit for any influenza ranged from 30% (VISION) to 41% (U.S. Flu VE). VE against an outpatient visit for influenza A was 30% (VISION). In U.S. Flu VE, estimates of VE against an outpatient visit for influenza A (40%) and influenza A(H3N2) (37%) were not statistically significant. VE against hospitalization for any influenza and influenza A was 31% (VISION). VE estimates for influenza B were not reportable.”
Avoiding the Flu:
Q. I have had an annual flu shot for over 30 years after experiencing two debilitating bouts of flu when I was a young mother. Never again!
Have I avoided the flu because of vaccines, healthy hygiene habits, eating a healthy diet devoid of sugar and processed foods, managing my weight, or popping a handful of immune-boosting supplements daily? I have worked with children for the past 15 years, so I have definitely been exposed. I’ll keep doing what I’m doing, vaccines included, regardless of how effective they may or may not be.
A. We won’t know exactly how effective this year’s flu shot is much later, when all the data are in. See the list below for data on previous years. The flu season was especially bad this year. It hit early and hard. Your flu-fighting advice is quite sensible.
How Effective Is the Influenza Vaccine?
Readers of our syndicated newspaper column and subscribers to our newsletter know that we have generally been disappointed in the effectiveness of flu shots. Here is just one example of our concerns:
Flu Vaccine Failures Are Quickly Forgotten
Public health authorities don’t like to talk about flu vaccine failures. But the ability of the flu virus to mutate can lead to disappointing results.
Influenza vaccines don’t carry the political baggage of COVID vaccines. Most people have not waged war over flu shots.
We’ve been tracking influenza vaccine effectiveness for many years. Here is a summary of what we have discovered:
Vaccine Effectiveness in Past Years:
2004-2005: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 10%
2005-2006: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 21%
2006-2007: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 52%
2007-2008: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 37%
2008-2009: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 41%
2009-2010: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 56%
2010-2011: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 60%
2011-2012: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 47%
2012-2013: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 49%
2013-2014: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 52%
2014-2015: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 19%
2015-2016: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 47%
2016-2017: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 42%
2017-2018: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 38%
2018-2019: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 29%
2019-2020: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 39%
2020-2021: Vaccine Effectiveness was not calculated, in part because there was so little influenza2021-2022: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 36%
2022-2023: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 30%
2023-2024: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 44%
2024-2025: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 56%
2025-2026: Vaccine Effectiveness was: 36% (preliminary data)Overall Effectiveness: 42%
Readers Comment on When to Get a Flu Shot:
Virginia says even a little protection is worthwhile:
“Some protection is better than none! One day of the flu is too much so I appreciate every little bit of decreased symptoms. Medicine is an art not a science.”
Dzrlib offers this comment:
“I am 84 years old and have never had a flu shot. I think it’s because I take 3 to 4 grams of crystalline Vitamin C every day, dissolved in tomato juice. Been doing this for over 40 years.”
Phyllis trusts the vaccine:
“I’ve been so lucky. I’ve been taking flu shots for 30 years or more. I only had a mild case of flu one time. That was around the second or third time I took it. I would never hesitate to take my flu shot. I’m now 76 years old and trust the shots.”
Chris delayed his shot and won’t do it again!
“I’m 71. Two years ago, I put off getting my flu shot because I read that seniors should wait until December so they’d have better protection in February. I got the flu the day before I was scheduled for my shot and was horribly sick for a month.
“From now on, I will get my flu shot in October or early November. In years I’ve gotten a timely flu shot, I have never had the flu.”
Shirley’s husband got the flu even though he got the shot:
“We are seniors and got the stronger dose of the flu vaccine last fall. My husband got the flu in late January and was knocked out for at least two weeks. He was in bed and didn’t eat much the first week. I managed to stay far enough away from him that I didn’t get it.”
Please let us know how you fared this flu season. Did you catch influenza? If so, how bad was it? What did you do to get over influenza? How long did it take? If you avoided the flu, what was your strategy. Thanks for sharing your experience in the comment section below.
