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Experts are worried about the next big flu outbreak. While most of the rest of us don't give influenza a single thought in the spring and summer, world health authorities are preparing for a possible pandemic.
Virologists are already concerned that there may not be enough flu vaccine next year to fight the standard types of influenza. They are even more alarmed that bird flu (H5N1) from Southeast Asia may begin spreading from person to person. There is still no vaccine against this potential killer.
What makes bird flu so scary is that no one in the world has developed antibodies to this particular strain of flu. Of the 92 humans who have been infected so far, 52 have died.
Epidemiologists worry that this virus could sweep the globe, infecting tens of millions of vulnerable people. A flu pandemic in 1918 killed more people throughout the world than died on the battlefields of the First World War.
Another concern is that this influenza virus is spreading in poor countries with few resources to stop an epidemic. Researchers are hoping that most cases of bird flu that have infected people in Southeast Asia were caught from chickens or other birds. But new reports from Vietnam suggest that bird flu may be adapting to human hosts. If the virus evolves so that it can be easily transmitted from human to human, the world could face its biggest health challenge in a century.
Fortunately, there is a medication that appears to work reasonably well against bird flu. It is called Tamiflu and was developed several years ago to fight the standard flu we are all used to. That it also seems effective against H5N1 (the bird flu) is fortuitous.
That's the good news. The bad news is that the manufacturer is having a hard time keeping up with demand. It takes a year to make a batch of Tamiflu and as a consequence, the drug is expensive (more than $3 per pill).
European countries have been especially aggressive about stockpiling this medicine. The United Kingdom already has stored up 14.6 million doses, enough to cover 24 percent of its population. France has 13 million doses, adequate for 22 percent of its citizens.
Vietnam and Cambodia, on the other hand, have miniscule stores of Tamiflu, even though that's where this potential epidemic is starting. U.S. authorities have been slow to respond to the threat. This huge country only has 2.3 million doses of Tamiflu on hand, barely enough for one percent of the population.
Public health authorities discourage individuals from stockpiling this type of preventive medicine. Nevertheless, it might be worth talking to a physician now, before flu season is even on the radarscope. That way it might be possible to have a prescription on hand before flu starts to rear its ugly head. Vaccines may run out again, and Tamiflu can be used to prevent as well as treat both Type A and Type B influenza.
In the event that bird flu becomes a public health menace around the world, those with Tamiflu on hand could protect themselves. But public health authorities need to figure out effective ways to help the poor nations that are the incubators so that this pandemic could be stopped before it even takes hold.
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